by frequent reader and commenter, Andrew Stevens
[UPDATE: Andrew pointed out that I left out his caveat that anything can happen in a week. I thought that would go without saying, and I don't intend to put down Andrew's prognostication skills if things change. He has been better at making predictions than I have.]
First of all, I think McCain is now close to unstoppable. On February 5th, the big winner-take-all prize is New York with its 101 delegates. With Giuliani out and endorsing McCain, McCain ought to win New York easily. Missouri could still go Huckabee’s way, but if it doesn’t go for Huck, it will go for McCain. That’s another 58 winner-take-all delegates. Arizona’s 53 delegates will obviously go for John McCain. New Jersey’s 52 will follow New York into McCain’s pocket. Connecticut’s 30 and Delaware’s 18 will go McCain’s way as well. The two winner-take-all states which will go Romney’s way are Utah (obviously, with 36) and perhaps Montana (with 25), but McCain might sneak past Romney in Montana as well.
In those states which give proportional delegates, the big one is California (173 total). McCain should win the lion’s share there. Georgia (72) and Illinois (70) are the next two. I expect Huckabee to win Georgia and McCain to win Illinois. Huckabee should also pick up more delegates than anyone else in Tennessee (55), Alabama (48), Arkansas (34), and probably West Virginia (30). McCain should win more than anybody else in Maine (21), Minnesota (41), and Oklahoma (41). Romney will pick up good totals in Colorado (46), Massachusetts (43), and North Dakota (26). Alaska (29)? Who knows?
McCain’s ability to win almost all of the winner-take-all states (except Utah and perhaps Montana and Missouri) and the fact that Huckabee will keep Romney shut out down South (and Romney will finish third in most of those states as he and Huck split the self-identified very conservative and McCain picks up everybody else) means that Super Tuesday will look like a decisive McCain victory. There are 1102 delegates up for grabs and I expect McCain to pick up at least half of them with Romney and Huckabee splitting the rest.
We’ll see however if Romney can’t turn the tide. The big prizes, though (New York, Arizona, and New Jersey) look very, very safe for McCain. His lead in California also looks insurmountable though Romney will do well there. The big prize McCain might not win (Missouri) is very unlikely to go to Romney; if McCain doesn’t win it, Huckabee will. Against McCain’s big wins, Romney’s prizes of Utah, Massachusetts, Colorado, and maybe Montana and a couple of other states isn’t going to look like very much.
As for the Democrats, I have no idea. Probably Hillary, but I can see things swinging Obama’s way much more easily than I can see things swinging Romney’s.
5 responses so far ↓
Andrew Stevens // January 30, 2008 at 1:26 pm |
Thanks for the post. You did leave out my caveat, “anything can happen in a week.” In particular, if Huckabee drops out, which I’m pretty sure he won’t, I don’t know what would happen.
I was expecting an easy Democratic victory in 2008. However, the Republicans look set to nominate the only candidate they’ve got who can actually win and the Democrats look set to nominate the only candidate they’ve got who can actually lose. I guess both parties decided they wanted another 50-50 election, none of this 60-40 stuff.
Andrew Stevens // January 30, 2008 at 9:48 pm |
By the by, a very poor debate performance from McCain tonight. It is possible that this will affect my above analysis. It could possibly hurt him nationally.
Shirley // January 30, 2008 at 10:35 pm |
I didn’t hear the debate tonight, but as of this afternoon, I also felt McCain was all but upstoppable. I am not particularly excited about the prospect.
shirley Buxton
http://www.shirleybuxton.wordpress.com
Mervi // January 31, 2008 at 11:32 am |
R /Man and others:
Yes, McCain is getting real close to being the one who will carry the torch for the Republican Party. My main concern is that he will have the ability to overcome the Democratic torch barrier, who ever that may be.
Mervi
Andrew Stevens // February 6, 2008 at 12:15 am |
The only ones I whiffed on here were Maine and Minnesota which went to Romney instead of McCain. California was just called for McCain, but it looks closer than I expected it to be. I called New York, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri (almost exactly), Tennessee, Arizona, New Jersey, Alabama, Colorado, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Utah, Arkansas, Connecticut, West Virginia (though I got lucky there), North Dakota, Montana, and Delaware. Alaska hasn’t been called, but I didn’t predict it anyway.
All in all, though, I’m impressed at how well I did, especially since I downgraded Huckabee as Super Tuesday came closer and I would have done better sticking to what I wrote above.