I don’t think Huckabee can actually win, although I don’t want to be pessimistic. He has not been my favorite candidate, but he would be better than McCain.
At this point, Huckabee has about 181 delegates pledged or expected to vote for him. To get a majority he would need 1,191 in all. Here are the states that Huckabee has a good chance of winning and the total number of delegates from each:
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Kansas 36
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Louisiana 44
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Virginia 63
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Texas 137
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Mississippi 36
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Tennessee 52
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North Carolina 69
Even if Huckabee wins in all these states, he would still need to pick up lots more delegates from other states, where I think John McCain has at least an equal chance of winning. Then there are the delegates that are pledged to Mitt Romney. Some of them will probably vote for Huckabee, but even if all of the Romney delegates switch to Huckabee, it won’t be enough. It doesn’t look good.
You can find some interesting analyses of the matter at these sites:
5 responses so far ↓
cons3rvative // February 8, 2008 at 12:33 pm |
I pray he wins it. It will be tough without the media’s love, but ,he has come this far without them. i think America is realizing they can have McCain or they can have a true conservtive in Huckabee.
of Dobson’s endorsement;Dobson added, “Obviously, the governor faces an uphill struggle, given the delegates already committed to Sen. McCain. Nevertheless, I believe he is our best remaining choice for President of the United States.”
I think so too, and pray he wins it! see where he stands on the key issues at http://www.mikehuckabee.com
steve // February 8, 2008 at 2:42 pm |
I shudder to think what would happen if Huckabee won the nomination. I think that would all but assure the Democrats win in November. Nice thought about Huckabee, but ain’t gonna happen. This Romney support will not “convert” to Huckabee, or McCain.
renaissanceguy // February 8, 2008 at 4:40 pm |
Steve, why would that assure a win for the Democrats? Are you saying that the same people who are urging me to vote for McCain would not vote for Huckabee if he gets the nomination?
The folks who were planning to vote for Romney in the upcoming primaries will have to vote for somebody. And the delegates pledged to him may change their vote, especially if he calls on them to.
Andrew Stevens // February 8, 2008 at 4:57 pm |
Renaissance Guy, 51% of the country are not Republicans. The people Huckabee will lose are independents, not Republicans.
In any event, there is no path to the nomination for Huckabee. Virginia, D.C., and Vermont are the only winner-take-all states left. So to win, Huckabee will need to beat McCain 80-20 in just about every state. That isn’t going to happen.
Tom Pereira // February 12, 2008 at 8:15 pm |
So now the choice is between McCain, a liberal Democrat, or Huckabee, a bigot. If that is my choice then I would have to choose McCain, as much as it pains me. I cannot support a bigot who claims he knows nothing about the Mormons, only made an honest mistake out of ignorance, but then was a keynote speaker at the Southern Bapitist Convention in Salt Lake City where the whole point was to distribute anti-Mormon literature and “witness” to Mormon faithful. Sure, he did not know what he was saying!
After watching the first part of the PBS special “The Mormons” last night, it ocurred to me what might be going on with Huckabee. Huckabee is from Arkansas, born and raised. He was the governor of Arkansas. It was pioneers from Arkansas that were viciously murdered in the “Mountain Meadows Massacre “on September 11, 1857. Could it be that Huckabee has a relative who was a member of that emigrant wagon train crossing the plains? Would this explain his utter disdain for Romney and Mormons generally? It is worth getting out those geneology records and finding the truth. If it turns out he is a descendant of one of those murdered from Arkansas, well, that would sure explain a whole lot, although not justify his bigotry. It would also cast serious doubt on his veracity since no one would doubt he knows far more than he pretends about the Mormon faith.